Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for July 2025 IIP growth projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of IIP growth forecasts from economists, shows that industrial production growth would improve to 2.0% in July 2025 as against 1.5% growth recorded in June 2025.

Economists expect IIP growth to be in the range of 2.0-2.75% in July 2025. The median of various IIP growth forecast received from economists stood at 2.0%, while the average was higher at 2.3% for July 2025.

Eight core infrastructure sector: July 2025

The output of eight core industries, with a combined weight of 40.3% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), increased 2.0% in July 2025 over July 2024. The output of steel moved up 12.8%, cement 11.7%, fertilizers 2.0% and electricity generation 0.5%. However, the output of petroleum refinery products declined 1.0% and crude oil 1.3%. Further, the output of natural gas dipped 3.2% and coal 12.3% in July 2025. The output of the core sectors increased 1.6% in April-July FY2026 compared with the rise of 6.3% in April-July FY2026.

During July 2025, the eight-core infrastructure sector would contribute overall IIP growth with the positive share of 89 bps, based on 40.3% weight and 2.0% growth in output recorded for the month. The contribution of the eight-core infrastructure sector is showing decline in contribution to the IIP from 96 bps in June 2025.

Index of industrial production: June 2025

India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) increased 1.52% in June 2025. The manufacturing sector output moved up 3.89%, contributing to the overall rise in industrial production. However, the mining sector output eased 8.67% and the electricity generation declined 2.56% in June 2025.

As per the use-based classification, the output of primary goods fell 3.01% in June 2025, while the output of capital goods increased 3.50% in June 2025. Further, the production of intermediate goods rose 5.53% and infrastructure/ construction goods gained 7.25% in June 2025. Within the consumer durables, the output of consumer durables increased 2.91% and consumer non-durables fell 0.41% in June 2025.

In terms of industries, 15 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of June 2025 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

India's industrial production increased 1.98% in April-June FY2026. The manufacturing sector output increased 3.40% in April-June FY2026 contributing to the overall decline in industrial production. On the other hand, the mining sector output dipped 2.98% and the electricity generation also eased 1.93% in April-June FY2026.

World Industrial production growth: June 2025

As per the data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the world industrial production increased 3.2% in June 2025 compared to 1.5% rise in June 2024. The industrial output in emerging economies improved 5.0%, while industrial output in advanced economies galloped 1.1% in June 2025 over June 2024.

The industrial production of the Euro area increased 0.3% and US rose 0.8%, while that of Japan increased 2.8% in June 2025 over June 2024.

Among the emerging economies, the industrial output of China increased 6.9%, while that of emerging Asia excluding China moved up 0.8% in June 2025. The industrial production of the Eastern Europe rose 4.9% in June 2025.

Outlook

The industrial production growth has improved to 1.5% in June 2025 from 1.2% growth recorded in the previous month. Among the industry groups, 15 out of 23 industry groups have shown positive growth in the output. However, the mining and electricity generation output has declined in June 2025 with the pick-up in rainfall. The growth in industrial sector remained subdued and uneven across segments, pulled down by electricity and mining. The domestic growth remains healthy aided by rural demand, and fixed investment, supported by buoyant government capex, continue to boost economic activity. On the supply side, a steady south-west monsoon is supporting kharif sowing, replenishing reservoir levels and boosting agriculture activity.

As for the growth outlook, the above normal southwest monsoon, lower inflation, rising capacity utilization and congenial financial conditions continue to support domestic economic activity. The supportive monetary, regulatory and fiscal policies including robust government capital expenditure should also boost demand. The services sector is expected to remain buoyant, with sustained growth in construction and trade in the coming months. Prospects of external demand, however, remain uncertain amidst ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations. The headwinds emanating from prolonged geopolitical tensions, persisting global uncertainties, and volatility in global financial markets pose risks to the growth outlook.