Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for January 2026 IIP growth projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of IIP growth forecasts from economists, shows that industrial production growth would moderate but remain healthy at 6.2% in January 2026 as against 7.8% growth recorded in December 2025.

Economists expect IIP growth to be in the range of 5.5-6.8% in January 2026. The median of various IIP growth forecast received from economists stood at 6.2%, while the average also stood at 6.2% for January 2026.

 Eight core infrastructure sector: January 2026

The output of eight core industries, with a combined weight of 40.3% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), increased 4.0% in January 2026 over January 2025. The output of cement increased 10.7%, steel 9.9% and electricity generation 3.8%. Further, the output of fertilizers increased 3.7% and coal 3.1%. However, the output of crude oil declined 5.8% and natural gas 5.0%, while the output of petroleum refinery products was flat in January 2026. The output of the core sectors increased 2.8% in April-January FY2026 compared with the rise of 4.5% in April-January FY2026.

During January 2026, the eight-core infrastructure sector would contribute overall IIP growth with the 174 bps share, based on 40.3% weight and 4.0% growth in the output recorded for the month. The contribution of the eight-core infrastructure sector is showing decline in contribution to the IIP from 201 bps in December 2025.

Index of industrial production: December 2025

India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) increased 7.78% in December 2025. The manufacturing sector output moved up 8.08%, while the mining sector output rose 6.84% in December 2025 contributing to the overall rise in industrial production. Further, the electricity generation increased 6.28% in December 2025.

As per the use-based classification, the output of primary goods moved up 4.38% in December 2025, while the output of capital goods increased 8.11% in December 2025. Further, the production of intermediate goods rose 7.47% and infrastructure/ construction goods gained 12.13% in December 2025. Within the consumer durables, the output of consumer durables increased 12.28% and consumer non-durables moved up 8.27% in December 2025.

In terms of industries, 16 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of December 2025 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

India's industrial production increased 3.84% in April-December FY2026. The manufacturing sector output increased 4.89%, while the mining sector output gained 0.13% in April-December FY2026 contributing to the overall decline in industrial production. Further, the electricity generation rose 0.46% in April-December FY2026.

World Industrial production growth: December 2025

As per the data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the world industrial production increased 3.4% in December 2025 compared to 2.3% rise in December 2024. The industrial output in emerging economies improved 4.5%, while industrial output in advanced economies galloped 2.1% in December 2025 over December 2024.

The industrial production of the Euro area increased 1.0% and US rose 2.0%, while that of Japan increased 0.8% in December 2025 over December 2024.

Among the emerging economies, the industrial output of China increased 5.2%, while that of emerging Asia excluding China moved up 4.8% in December 2025. The industrial production of the Eastern Europe rose 4.9% in December 2025.

Outlook

Indias industrial production growth accelerated sharply to 26-months high of 7.8% in December 2025, driven by low base and healthy growth in manufacturing, mining sector as well as electricity generation output. The growth has been broad based with 16 out of 23 manufacturing industries showing growth in the output, while all six used based groups have also recorded positive growth in the output for December 2025. As per the RBI, the sustained buoyancy in services sector, GST rationalisation, healthy rabi prospects, monetary easing and benign inflation environment is expected to support private consumption. Investment activity, supported by high-capacity utilisation, conducive financial conditions, healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates, robust credit growth and Government’s continued thrust on capital expenditure, is expected to maintain its momentum. The robust domestic demand is likely to attract fresh investments by the private sector. While services exports are expected to remain strong, merchandise exports will get a boost from the prospective trade deal with the US. The landmark comprehensive trade pact with the European Union coupled with trade deals with New Zealand and Oman should help diversify exports and strengthen the external sector. On the other hand, headwinds from geopolitical tensions, uncertain global trade environment, volatility in global financial markets and international commodity prices continue to pose downside risks to the outlook.