Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for December 2025 CPI inflation projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of CPI inflation forecasts from economists, shows that CPI inflation would accelerate to 1.6% in December 2025 from 0.71% in November 2025 and an all-time low of 0.25% touched in October 2025.

The economists in the poll have projected the CPI inflation in the range of 1.4% to 1.7% for December 2025. The median of various CPI inflation forecast received from economists stood at 1.6%, while the average was also at 1.6% for December 2025.

CPI Inflation: November 2025

The all-India general CPI inflation increased to 0.71% in November 2025 (new base 2012=100), compared with all-time low of 0.25% touched in the previous month of October 2025. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area was 0.10% and urban area 1.40% in November 2025 as against (-) 0.25% and 0.88% in October 2025.

The core CPI inflation declined to 4.42% in November 2025 compared with 4.49% in October 2025. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 1.91% in April-November FY2026 compared with 4.80% in April-November FY2025.

Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages increased to (-) 2.78% in November 2025 from (-) 3.72% in October 2025. Within the food items, the inflation for vegetables increased to (-) 22.20%, meat and fish 2.50%, spices (-) 2.89% and egg 3.77%. Further, the inflation for pulses and products rose to (-) 15.86%, milk and products 2.45%, fruits 6.87%, sugar and confectionery 4.02%. However, the inflation for oils and fats declined to 7.87%, cereals and products 0.10%, prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 3.65% and non-alcoholic beverages 2.92% in November 2025.

The inflation for housing increased to 2.95%, while that for miscellaneous items eased to 5.64% in November 2025. Within the miscellaneous items, the inflation for health declined to 3.60%, while the inflation for household goods and services declined to 2.03%, education 3.38%, transport and communication 0.88% and recreation and amusement 1.29%. However, the inflation for personal care and effects increased to 24.04% in November 2025.

The inflation for clothing and footwear declined to 1.49%, while the CPI inflation of fuel and light rose to 2.32% in November 2025.

FAO Food Price Index: December 2025

The benchmark for world food commodity prices fell in December compared to the previous month, as declines in dairy product, meat and vegetable oil quotations more than offset increases in those for cereals and sugar. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, declined 0.6% from November and 2.3% from its level a year ago. For the whole of 2025, the index rose 4.3% higher than its average in 2024, as higher world prices for vegetable oils and dairy products outweighed declines in cereal and sugar quotations.

The FAO Cereal Price Index in December increased by 1.7% from November, buoyed by renewed concerns over Black Sea wheat export flows, robust import demand for maize, strong domestic ethanol production in both Brazil and the United States of America, and higher prices across all rice market segments. For 2025 as a whole, the Cereal Price Index averaged 4.9% below its 2024 level, marking its third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index in December fell by 0.2% from November to a six-month low, as declines in world prices of soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils more than offset increases in palm oil quotations. Across 2025, the Index averaged 17.1% higher than in 2024, marking a three-year high amid tight global supplies.

The FAO Meat Price Index dipped by 1.3% from its revised November value but remained 3.4% above its December 2024 value, with prices down across all meat categories, particularly bovine and poultry. For the entire 2025, the Index averaged 5.1% above its 2024 level, supported by strong global import demand and heightened market uncertainty linked to animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical tensions. World bovine and ovine meat prices increased, while those for pig and poultry meats declined.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 4.4% from November, led by a sharp drop in butter prices driven by seasonally higher cream availability in Europe. For 2025, the Index averaged 13.2% above its 2024 level, underpinned by strong global import demand and limited exportable supplies earlier in the year.

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose by 2.4% from November, mainly due to a sharp drop in sugar production in Brazil’s key southern growing regions, while remaining 24.0% below its December 2024 level. For 2025 as a whole, the Index averaged 17.0% below the previous year, recording its lowest annual value since 2020, amid ample export availabilities.

Outlook

The WPI inflation remained in negative zone in November 2025, while rebounded from lows in October 2025. The CPI inflation also bounced back from all time low touched in October 2025. However, the core WPI inflation was steady and core CPI inflation declined marginally in November 2025. As per the RBI, food supply prospects remain bright on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward. Overall, inflation is likely to be softer than what was projected in October, mainly on account of the fall in food prices. CPI inflation for 2025-26 is now projected at 2.0% with Q3 at 0.6%, and Q4 at 2.9%. CPI inflation for Q1FY2027 is projected at 3.9% and Q2FY2027 at 4.0%. The CPI inflation is expected rise to 1.6% in December 2024 driven by low base and strengthening of food prices.