Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for February 2026 CPI inflation projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of CPI inflation forecasts from economists, shows that CPI inflation would increase to 3.1% in February 2026 from 2.8% in January 2026.

The economists in the poll have projected the CPI inflation in the range of 2.8% to 3.14% for February 2026. The median of various CPI inflation forecast received from economists stood at 3.1%, while the average was slightly lower at 3.0% for February 2026.

CPI Inflation: January 2026

The all-India general CPI inflation increased to 2.8% in January 2026 (new base 2024=100), compared with 1.2% in December 2025. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area has jumped to 2.7% from 0.6% and urban area also galloped to 2.8% in January 2026 from 1.8% in December 2025. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 1.8% in April-January FY2026 compared with 4.9% in April-January FY2025.

Among the CPI components, the CPI index has increased on sequential basis for 11 out of 12 groups in January 2026 over December 2025. The index for food and beverages eased on sequential basis by 0.04% and inflation stood at 2.11% for January 2026. The inflation has increased sharply on sequential basis for personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services by 5.23% with inflation rising to 19.02%.

The inflation for recreation, sport and culture stood at 2.32%, paan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.86%, restaurants and accommodation services 2.87% and clothing and footwear 2.98%. Further, the inflation for furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance was at 1.45%, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 1.53%, health 2.19% and education services 3.35%. The inflation was moderate for transport at 0.09% and information and communication 0.16% in January 2026.

FAO Food Price Index: February 2026

The benchmark measure for world food commodity prices rose in February 2026, ending a five-month downward trend, as higher quotations for wheat, most vegetable oils and several meat types outweighed declines in cheese and sugar prices. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, rose 0.9% from its revised January 2026 level, while still remained 1.0% below its level a year earlier.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.1% from January, driven primarily by higher world wheat prices reflecting reports of frosts in parts of Europe and the United States of America as well as ongoing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region. International coarse grain prices also posted a modest increase, while the FAO All Rice Price Index edged up by 0.4% from the previous month, supported by sustained demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 3.3% in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022. International palm oil prices rose amid firm global import demand and seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asia, while world soyoil prices increased on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States of America. Rapeseed oil prices rebounded, driven by prospects of stronger import demand for Canadian supplies. By contrast, sunflower oil prices eased moderately, partly due to rising export supplies from Argentina.

The FAO Meat Price Index increased by 0.8% from January, as ovine meat prices reached an all-time high and bovine meat prices rose on the back of strong import demand from China and the United States of America. Prices of pig and poultry meats edged up slightly from January.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 1.2%, driven primarily by lower cheese prices. International quotations for skim and whole milk powders increased notably amid strengthening import demand from North Africa, the Near East and Southeast Asia, while world butter prices registered their first monthly rise since reaching an all-time high in June 2025.

The FAO Sugar Price Index was down by 4.1% from January and by as much as 27.3% compared with February 2025 amid expectations of ample global supplies in the current season.

Outlook

The inflation for new CPI series has jumped to 2.8% in January 2026 from 1.2% in December 2025. The WPI inflation accelerated to 1.8% in January 2026 from 0.8% in December 2025 and negative reading in November 2025. The core inflation has also accelerated sharply in January 2026. The food supply prospects remain bright on the back of healthy kharif production, adequate buffer stocks of foodgrains and favourable rabi sowing. Geopolitical uncertainty coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events are other possible upside risks to inflation. The inflation is expected to continue to edge up ahead in the coming months on account on of a lower base effect, while rising crude oil prices and weak Rupee poses a significant risk to inflation trajectory.