Capital Market conducted the poll amongst economists for their projections of inflation figure for December 2025. As per the results of poll, the inflation rate is projected to return to positive zone at 0.3% in December 2025. Economists in the poll have projected WPI inflation in the range of 0.1-0.4% for December 2025. The median of the economists forecast for inflation of December 2025 stood at (-) 0.3%, while the average also stood at (-) 0.3%.

CPI Inflation: December 2025

The all-India general CPI inflation increased to 1.33% in December 2025 (new base 2012=100), compared with 0.71% in October 2025. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area was 0.76% and urban area 2.03% in December 2025 as against 0.10% and 1.40% in October 2025. The core CPI inflation increased to 4.73% in December 2025 compared with 4.42% in October 2025. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 1.71% in April-December FY2026 compared with 4.93% in April-December FY2025.

Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages increased to (-) 1.85% in December 2025 from (-) 2.78% in October 2025. Within the food items, the inflation for vegetables increased to (-) 18.47%, meat and fish 5.12%, spices (-) 2.15% and pulses and products (-) 15.09%. Further, the inflation for milk and products rose to 2.56%, sugar and confectionery 4.66%, egg 4.76%. However, the inflation for cereals and products declined to (-) 0.35%, oils and fats 6.75%, prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 3.49%, non-alcoholic beverages 2.42% and fruits 6.66% in December 2025.

The inflation for housing declined to 2.86%, while that for miscellaneous items rose to 6.17% in December 2025. Within the miscellaneous items, the inflation for personal care and effects increased to 28.07% contributing to the overall increase in group inflation. However, the inflation for transport and communication declined to 0.76%, health 3.43%, household goods and services 1.91% and recreation and amusement 1.17%. Further, the inflation for education also eased to 3.32% in December 2025.

The inflation for clothing and footwear fell to 1.44%, while the CPI inflation of fuel and light eased to 1.97% in December 2025.

WPI Inflation: November 2025

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation, base year 2011-12, increased to (-) 0.3% in November 2025 from (-) 1.2% in October 2025. Among the three major sub-groups, the inflation for primary articles and fuel and power group increased contributing to the overall increase in inflation in November 2025. However, the inflation for manufactured products group declined. The core inflation (manufactured products excluding foods products) was steady at 1.5% in November 2025 from 1.5% October 2025.

The WPI inflation is revised slightly upwards to 0.19% for September 2025 from 0.13% reported at provisional level.

Inflation of primary articles rose to (-) 2.9% in November 2025 from (-) 6.2% in October 2025. Further, the inflation for fuel and power group inflation gained to (-) 2.3% from (-) 2.6% in October 2025. However, manufactured products inflation slipped to 1.3% in November 2025 from 1.5% in October 2025.

Inflation of food items (food articles and food products) increased to (-) 2.6% in November 2025 from (-) 5.0% in October 2025. Meanwhile, inflation of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) rose to 0.7% in November 2025 from 0.6% in October 2025.

The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation of (-) 0.3% rose to (-) 84 basis points (bps) in November 2025, from contribution of (-) 179 bps to (-) 1.2% inflation in October 2025. The contribution of fuel product group increased to (-) 29 bps against (-) 32 bps in October 2025, while that of manufactured products declined to 78 bps in November 2025 from 90 bps in October 2025.

The contribution of food items (food articles and food products) to inflation of (-) 0.3% in November 2025 increased to (-) 81 bps from (-) 159 bps to (-) 1.2% in October 2025. Meanwhile, the contribution of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) gained to 47 bps in November 2025 from 38 bps in October 2025.

FAO Food Price Index: December 2025

The benchmark for world food commodity prices fell in December compared to the previous month, as declines in dairy product, meat and vegetable oil quotations more than offset increases in those for cereals and sugar. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, declined 0.6% from November and 2.3% from its level a year ago. For the whole of 2025, the index rose 4.3% higher than its average in 2024, as higher world prices for vegetable oils and dairy products outweighed declines in cereal and sugar quotations.

The FAO Cereal Price Index in December increased by 1.7% from November, buoyed by renewed concerns over Black Sea wheat export flows, robust import demand for maize, strong domestic ethanol production in both Brazil and the United States of America, and higher prices across all rice market segments. For 2025 as a whole, the Cereal Price Index averaged 4.9% below its 2024 level, marking its third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index in December fell by 0.2% from November to a six-month low, as declines in world prices of soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils more than offset increases in palm oil quotations. Across 2025, the Index averaged 17.1% higher than in 2024, marking a three-year high amid tight global supplies.

The FAO Meat Price Index dipped by 1.3% from its revised November value but remained 3.4% above its December 2024 value, with prices down across all meat categories, particularly bovine and poultry. For the entire 2025, the Index averaged 5.1% above its 2024 level, supported by strong global import demand and heightened market uncertainty linked to animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical tensions. World bovine and ovine meat prices increased, while those for pig and poultry meats declined.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 4.4% from November, led by a sharp drop in butter prices driven by seasonally higher cream availability in Europe. For 2025, the Index averaged 13.2% above its 2024 level, underpinned by strong global import demand and limited exportable supplies earlier in the year.

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose by 2.4% from November, mainly due to a sharp drop in sugar production in Brazil’s key southern growing regions, while remaining 24.0% below its December 2024 level. For 2025 as a whole, the Index averaged 17.0% below the previous year, recording its lowest annual value since 2020, amid ample export availabilities.

Outlook

The WPI inflation remained in negative zone in November 2025, while rebounded from lows in October 2025. The core WPI inflation was steady in November 2025. As per the RBI, food supply prospects remain bright on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. The CPI inflation has increased to 1.33% in December 2025 mainly driven by recovery in vegetables prices and surge in gold prices. The WPI inflation is also expected rebound to positive zone in December 2025 after remaining in negative zone for last two straight months and four out of last six months. The unfavourable base may restrict sharp increase in WPI inflation for December 2025.