Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for October 2025 IIP growth projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of IIP growth forecasts from economists, shows that industrial production growth would moderate to 3.0% in October 2025 as against 4.0% growth recorded in September 2025.

Economists expect IIP growth to be at 3.0% in October 2025. The median of various IIP growth forecast received from economists stood at 3.0%, while the average was also at 3.0% for October 2025.

Eight core infrastructure sector: October 2025

The output of eight core industries, with a combined weight of 40.3% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), was flat in October 2025 over October 2024. The output of coal declined 8.5%, crude oil 1.2%, natural gas 5.0% and electricity generation 7.6%. However, the output of fertilizers increased 7.4% and steel 6.7%. Further, the output of cement increased 5.3% and petroleum refinery products 4.6% in October 2025. The output of the core sectors increased 2.5% in April-October FY2026 compared with the rise of 4.3% in April-October FY2026.

During October 2025, the eight-core infrastructure sector would contribute overall IIP growth with the nil share, based on 40.3% weight and yoy flat output recorded for the month. The contribution of the eight-core infrastructure sector is showing decline in contribution to the IIP from 140 bps in September 2025.

Index of industrial production: September 2025

India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) increased at a steady pace of 4.02% in September 2025. The growth has remained above 4% for last three straight months in September 2025. The manufacturing sector output moved up 4.82%, while the electricity generation increased 3.09% in September 2025 contributing to the overall rise in industrial production. Further, the mining sector output eased 0.45% in September 2025.

As per the use-based classification, the output of primary goods moved up 1.42% in September 2025, while the output of capital goods increased 4.72% in September 2025. Further, the production of intermediate goods rose 5.35% and infrastructure/ construction goods gained 10.51% in September 2025. Within the consumer durables, the output of consumer durables increased 10.23% and consumer non-durables fell 2.88% in September 2025.

In terms of industries, 13 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of September 2025 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

India's industrial production increased 3.05% in April-September FY2026. The manufacturing sector output increased 4.10%, while the mining sector output declined 1.87% in April-September FY2026 contributing to the overall decline in industrial production. Further, the electricity generation rose 1.04% in April-September FY2026.

World Industrial production growth: September 2025

As per the data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the world industrial production increased 3.5% in September 2025 compared to 1.6% rise in September 2024. The industrial output in emerging economies improved 4.6%, while industrial output in advanced economies galloped 2.2% in September 2025 over September 2024.

The industrial production of the Euro area increased 1.4% and US rose 1.3%, while that of Japan increased 1.6% in September 2025 over September 2024.

Among the emerging economies, the industrial output of China increased 6.2%, while that of emerging Asia excluding China moved up 1.9% in September 2025. The industrial production of the Eastern Europe rose 1.3% in September 2025.

Outlook

India’s industrial production improved steady pace above 4% for fourth straight month in September 2025. The growth in the manufacturing and electricity output supported the IIP growth, while the mining sector output continued to decline marginally impacting overall growth. Within the manufacturing sector, the output of only 13 out of the 23 manufacturing subcategories have shown positive growth. Within used based classification, the output of consumer non-durable goods has shown decline in output.

Rural demand remains strong, riding on a good monsoon and robust agriculture activity, while urban demand is showing a gradual revival. An above normal monsoon, good progress of kharif sowing and adequate reservoir levels have further brightened prospects of agriculture and rural demand. Buoyancy in services sector coupled with steady employment conditions are supportive of demand, which is expected to get a further boost from the rationalisation of goods and services tax (GST) rates. Rising capacity utilisation, conducive financial conditions, and improving domestic demand should continue to facilitate fixed investment. However, ongoing tariff and trade policy uncertainties will impact external demand for goods and services. Prolonged geopolitical tensions and volatility in international financial markets caused by risk-off sentiments of investors also pose downside risks to the growth outlook. The implementation of several growth-inducing structural reforms, including streamlining of GST are expected to offset some of the adverse effects of the external headwinds.