Central Statistical Office (CSO), operating under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), is scheduled to release the data on India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) for the month of February 2026 on 30 March 2026.

Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for February 2026 IIP growth projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of IIP growth forecasts from economists, shows that industrial production growth would moderate to 3.8% in February 2026 as against 4.8% growth recorded in January 2026.

Economists expect IIP growth to be in the range of 3.5-4.0% in February 2026. The median of various IIP growth forecast received from economists stood at 3.8%, while the average was also at 3.8% for February 2026.

Eight core infrastructure sector: February 2026

The output of eight core industries, with a combined weight of 40.3% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), increased 2.3% in February 2026 over February 2025. The output of cement increased 9.3%, steel 7.2% and fertilizers 3.4%. Further, the output of coal increased 2.3% and electricity generation 0.5%. However, the output of crude oil declined 5.2%, natural gas 5.0% and petroleum refinery products 1.0% in February 2026. The output of the core sectors increased 2.9% in April-February FY2026 compared with the rise of 4.4% in April-February FY2026.

During February 2026, the eight-core infrastructure sector would contribute overall IIP growth with 99 bps share, based on 40.3% weight and 2.3% growth in the output recorded for the month. The contribution of the eight-core infrastructure sector is showing decline in contribution to the IIP from 204 bps in January 2026.

Index of industrial production: January 2026

India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) increased 4.83% in January 2026, showing moderation from 8.0% growth in December 2025. The manufacturing sector output moved up 4.83%, while the mining sector output rose 4.31% in January 2026 contributing to the overall rise in industrial production. Further, the electricity generation increased 5.05% in January 2026.

As per the use-based classification, the output of primary goods moved up 3.13% in January 2026, while the output of capital goods increased 4.27% in January 2026. Further, the production of intermediate goods rose 5.97% and infrastructure/ construction goods gained 13.74% in January 2026. Within the consumer durables, the output of consumer durables increased 6.31% and consumer non-durables fell 2.67% in January 2026.

In terms of industries, 14 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of January 2026 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

India's industrial production increased 3.97% in April-January FY2026. The manufacturing sector output increased 4.92%, while the mining sector output gained 0.63% in April-January FY2026 contributing to the overall decline in industrial production. Further, the electricity generation rose 0.90% in April-January FY2026.

World Industrial production growth: December 2025

As per the data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the world industrial production increased 3.4% in December 2025 compared to 2.3% rise in December 2024. The industrial output in emerging economies improved 4.5%, while industrial output in advanced economies galloped 2.1% in December 2025 over December 2024.

The industrial production of the Euro area increased 1.0% and US rose 2.0%, while that of Japan increased 0.8% in December 2025 over December 2024.

Among the emerging economies, the industrial output of China increased 5.2%, while that of emerging Asia excluding China moved up 4.8% in December 2025. The industrial production of the Eastern Europe rose 4.9% in December 2025.

Outlook

India’s industrial production growth moderated to a 3-month low of 4.8% in January 2026 from a 26-month high of 8.0% in December 2025. The growth has moderated for all three sub-groups - mining, manufacturing and electricity with high base effect also contributing to the moderation in growth. However, the growth was still better with 14 out 23 industry groups showing positive growth in the output.

The buoyancy in services sector, GST reduction, healthy rabi prospects and monetary easing is expected to support private consumption. Investment activity, healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates, robust credit growth and Government’s continued thrust on capital expenditure, is expected to maintain its momentum. The trade deals with European Union, New Zealand, Oman and US should support exports.

However, headwinds from geopolitical tensions, uncertain global trade environment, volatility in global financial markets and international commodity prices continue to pose downside risks to the outlook. The ongoing geopolitical developments mainly emanating from US, Israel and Iran war may have impact on exports and commodity prices. The uncertain economic environment could impact investment activities.