Capital Market conducted the poll amongst economists for their projections of inflation figure for November 2025. As per the results of poll, the inflation rate is projected to remain in negative zone at (-) 0.6% in November 2025. Economists in the poll have projected WPI inflation in the range of (-) 0.55 to (-) 0.65% for November 2025. The median of the economists forecast for inflation of November 2025 stood at (-) 0.6%, while the average also stood at (-) 0.6%.

The all-India general CPI inflation increased to 0.71% in November 2025 (new base 2012=100), compared with all-time low of 0.25% touched in the previous month of October 2025. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area was 0.10% and urban area 1.40% in November 2025 as against (-) 0.25% and 0.88% in October 2025.

The core CPI inflation declined to 4.42% in November 2025 compared with 4.49% in October 2025. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 1.91% in April-November FY2026 compared with 4.80% in April-November FY2025.

Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages increased to (-) 2.78% in November 2025 from (-) 3.72% in October 2025. Within the food items, the inflation for vegetables increased to (-) 22.20%, meat and fish 2.50%, spices (-) 2.89% and egg 3.77%. Further, the inflation for pulses and products rose to (-) 15.86%, milk and products 2.45%, fruits 6.87%, sugar and confectionery 4.02%. However, the inflation for oils and fats declined to 7.87%, cereals and products 0.10%, prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 3.65% and non-alcoholic beverages 2.92% in November 2025.

The inflation for housing increased to 2.95%, while that for miscellaneous items eased to 5.64% in November 2025. Within the miscellaneous items, the inflation for health declined to 3.60%, while the inflation for household goods and services declined to 2.03%, education 3.38%, transport and communication 0.88% and recreation and amusement 1.29%. However, the inflation for personal care and effects increased to 24.04% in November 2025.

The inflation for clothing and footwear declined to 1.49%, while the CPI inflation of fuel and light rose to 2.32% in November 2025.

WPI Inflation: October 2025

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation, base year 2011-12, declined to (-) 1.2% in October 2025 from 0.1% in September 2025. Among the aft three major sub-groups, the inflation for fuel and power group was steady, while the inflation for primary articles and manufactured products group declined contributing to the overall dip in inflation in October 2025. The core inflation (manufactured products excluding foods products) dipped to 1.5% in October 2025 from 1.8% September 2025.

The WPI inflation is kept unchanged at 0.52% for August 2025 from 0.52% reported at provisional level.

Inflation of primary articles declined to (-) 6.2% in October 2025 from (-) 3.3% in September 2025. Further, manufactured products inflation slipped to 1.5% in October 2025 from 2.3% in September 2025. However, the inflation for fuel and power group inflation was steady at (-) 2.6% from (-) 2.6% in September 2025.

Inflation of food items (food articles and food products) fell to (-) 5.0% in October 2025 from (-) 2.0% in September 2025. Meanwhile, inflation of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) also declined to 0.6% in October 2025 from 1.0% in September 2025.

The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation of (-) 1.2% declined to (-) 179 basis points (bps) in October 2025, from contribution of (-) 95 bps to 0.1% inflation in September 2025. The contribution of fuel product group was flat at (-) 32 bps against (-) 32 bps in September 2025, while that of manufactured products declined to 90 bps in October 2025 from 137 bps in September 2025.

The contribution of food items (food articles and food products) to inflation of (-) 1.2% in October 2025 fell to (-) 159 bps from (-) 61 bps to 0.1% in September 2025. Meanwhile, the contribution of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) dipped to 38 bps in October 2025 from 70 bps in September 2025.

FAO Food Price Index: November 2025

World food commodity prices declined in November, led by lower international quotations for all major staple foods except cereals, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, eased 1.2% from its revised October level. The index has now declined for three consecutive months, standing 2.1% below its November 2024 level and 21.9% lower than its peak in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.3% during the month. Global wheat prices rose by 2.5% in November, supported by expectations of reduced plantings for the 2026 harvest in the Russian Federation. International maize prices also rose, underpinned by firm demand for Brazilian supplies, while the FAO All Rice Price Index declined amid subdued import demand for Indica and fragrant rice varieties.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 2.6% from October, as declines in palm, rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations more than offset a modest increase in soyoil prices, which were supported by strong demand from the biodiesel sector, particularly in Brazil.

The FAO Meat Price Index edged down 0.8% from its revised October level. Global poultry meat prices decreased amid abundant exportable supplies and heightened global competition, partly reflecting Brazil’s efforts to regain market share following the lifting of high-pathogenicity avian influenza-related trade bans by key importers.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 3.1% in November, led by lower quotations for butter and whole milk powder. The decrease reflected rising milk production and abundant export supplies in major producing regions.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 5.9% from October, driven by expectations of ample global supplies in the current season and strong production trends in Brazil, India and Thailand.

Outlook

The WPI inflation dipped into negative zone while, CPI inflation declined to an all-time low in October 2025. The faster than anticipated decline in inflation was led by correction in food prices, contrary to the usual trend witnessed during the months of September-October. Core inflation (CPI headline excluding food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. As per the RBI, food supply prospects remain bright on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward. The CPI inflation rose slightly in November 2025 from all time low in October 2025, driven by increase in vegetables prices. However, the core CPI inflation has moderated slightly in November 2025. The WPI inflation is expected to remain sub-zero level in November 2025 with lower weight of food items.