Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for November 2025 CPI inflation projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of CPI inflation forecasts from economists, shows that CPI inflation would accelerate to 0.74% in November 2025 from all-time low of 0.25% touched in October 2025.

The economists in the poll have projected the CPI inflation in the range of 0.65% to 1.0% for November 2025. The median of various CPI inflation forecast received from economists stood at 0.74%, while the average was higher at 0.82% for November 2025.

CPI Inflation: October 2025

The all-India general CPI inflation declined to 0.25% in October 2025 (new base 2012=100), compared with 1.44% in September 2025. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area was (-) 0.25% and urban area 0.88% in October 2025 as against 1.07% and 1.83% in September 2025. The core CPI inflation increased to 4.49% in October 2025 compared with 4.37% in September 2025. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 1.91% in April-October FY2026 compared with 4.80% in April-October FY2025.

Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages declined to (-) 3.72% in October 2025 from (-) 1.37% in September 2025. Within the food items, the inflation for vegetables declined to (-) 27.57%, oils and fats 11.17%, cereals and products 0.92%, fruits 6.69% and meat and fish 1.74%. Further, the inflation for pulses and products eased to (-) 16.15%, prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 3.96%, milk and products 2.35%, non-alcoholic beverages 3.49%. The inflation for egg also declined to 1.33%, spices (-) 3.29% and sugar and confectionery 4.02% in October 2025.

The inflation for housing declined to 2.96%, while that for miscellaneous items rose to 5.71% in October 2025. Within the miscellaneous items, the inflation for transport and communication declined to 0.94%, while the inflation for health declined to 3.86%, recreation and amusement 1.46%, household goods and services 2.26%. However, the inflation for education rose to 3.49% and personal care and effects 23.88% in October 2025.

The inflation for clothing and footwear declined to 1.70%, while the CPI inflation of fuel and light eased to 1.98% in October 2025.

FAO Food Price Index: November 2025

World food commodity prices declined in November, led by lower international quotations for all major staple foods except cereals, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, eased 1.2% from its revised October level. The index has now declined for three consecutive months, standing 2.1% below its November 2024 level and 21.9% lower than its peak in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.3% during the month. Global wheat prices rose by 2.5% in November, supported by expectations of reduced plantings for the 2026 harvest in the Russian Federation. International maize prices also rose, underpinned by firm demand for Brazilian supplies, while the FAO All Rice Price Index declined amid subdued import demand for Indica and fragrant rice varieties.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 2.6% from October, as declines in palm, rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations more than offset a modest increase in soyoil prices, which were supported by strong demand from the biodiesel sector, particularly in Brazil.

The FAO Meat Price Index edged down 0.8% from its revised October level. Global poultry meat prices decreased amid abundant exportable supplies and heightened global competition, partly reflecting Brazil’s efforts to regain market share following the lifting of high-pathogenicity avian influenza-related trade bans by key importers.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 3.1% in November, led by lower quotations for butter and whole milk powder. The decrease reflected rising milk production and abundant export supplies in major producing regions.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 5.9% from October, driven by expectations of ample global supplies in the current season and strong production trends in Brazil, India and Thailand.

Outlook

The CPI inflation declined to an all-time low in October 2025. The faster than anticipated decline in inflation was led by correction in food prices, contrary to the usual trend witnessed during the months of September-October. Core inflation (CPI headline excluding food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. As per the RBI, food supply prospects remain bright on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward. Overall, inflation is likely to be softer than what was projected in October, mainly on account of the fall in food prices. The RBI projects CPI inflation for 2025-26 at 2.0% with Q3 at 0.6%, and Q4 at 2.9%. CPI inflation for Q1FY2027 is projected at 3.9% and Q2FY2027 at 4.0%.