A resilient world economy is being tested again by the now-paused war in the Middle East. The conflict has caused considerable hardship around the globe, says IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the 2026 Spring Meetings. Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth, she said, adding that even the most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade now because of significant infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, losses of confidence, and other scarring effects. Growth will be slower—even if the new peace is durable, she added.

Policymakers can help in multiple ways, and—certainly—they must be careful not to make things worse, the IMF chief stated. She appealed to all countries to reject go-it-alone actions—export controls, price controls, and so on—that can further upset global conditions. Further, given the spillovers of the Middle East war, IMF expects near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise by somewhere between $20 billion and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds.