| The world’s energy markets fell first with the war and in the 2nd month the conflict is escalating beyond petrol price hikes, triggering a slew of economic pressures for India, one of the world’s largest crude oil importers. Growth forecasts were trimmed, inflation risks are flashing red, the import bill is set to rise and the government has to handle a fiscal burden of nearly Rs 2 lakh crore.
Oil price uncertainty index captured the scale of the disruption better than every other indicator. By December 2025, it had climbed to 208 while it surged to 773.5, nearly four times the December peak in March 2026.
Sehul Bhatt, director at Crisil Intelligence, says that “In March, Brent crude increased to $110–120 per barrel, while spot prices of Asian liquefied natural gas nearly doubled to $20–25 per MMBtu,” and suggests that even though there are early signs of “demand moderation”, supply uncertainty and logistics constraints are keeping import costs elevated. |